Today I am going to look at all of the “final mock drafts” out there and give you a summary of what they’re saying. There are a few well-plugged-in sources around the country who generally have a good idea about what a team or two are thinking. This is my official first-round mock but it’s not a “what would I do” mock, it’s a what do I think we can expect tonight mock.
I pushed out a Lions mock without trades on my Twitter yesterday. You can check that out HERE. Today I am going to put out my first-round mock draft. Tomorrow I will put out my rounds two and three based on how wrong I was about round one. The guys in the Slack chat are having a 50/50 style competition, $10 bucks each on a mock, the most accurate takes the pot, proceeds to the podcast. Without further ado, here is the mock.
1: Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has been destined for this pick his entire life. There really is not a whole bunch to say, he is a generational quarterback prospect in the way people used to use it: once in a generation.
2: New Your Jets
The Jets are for some reason taking Zack Wilson at number two. He’s my number four quarterback in this draft, but cool guys, you do you.
3: The San Francisco 49ers
I do not think the 49ers are going to take the guy I think they should here. Trey Lance gets some time to pick up the offense while they have Jimmy G on the roster.
4: The Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is a weapon. If the Falcons are sticking with Matt Ryan (they are) they need to add weapons for him. Particularly if those rumors about them trading Julio Jones later in the offseason are true (they are).
5: The Cincinatti Bengals
The Bengals give their quarterback the weapon he wants rather than the blocker he needs by selecting Jamar Chase, the best wide receiver in this draft but generational in the way that we have started using the word now… He’s the best guy this year.
6: The Miami Dolphins
Micah Parsons has some off-the-field baggage. However, when a lawsuit was filed, he was not among those called to court to defend themselves. I wouldn’t take him, but I don’t work for the Dolphins
7: The Detroit Lions
Rashawn Slater is the most pro-ready tackle in the draft. This is really just me, speculating that the Lions’ new front office will value immediate readiness to step in over the player’s ceiling when two players are really closely-ranked as prospects. I am actually hoping they trade back a few spots. I did an article about all the trade options a couple of days ago that you may want to read.
8: The Carolina Panthers
They traded Teddy Bridgewater yesterday, and they’re taking Justin Fields here. Or, they’re trading back to the Patriots, and the Patriots are taking Justin Fields here. Anyway, the reason the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater is that they don’t believe Fields will get past this spot in the draft.
9: The Denver Broncos
The Broncos grab 20-year-old Penei Sewell to shore up the line, now that they know their quarterback is not going to be an athletic freak. I had Fields going here before the trade yesterday, and I don’t think they take Mac Jones. That’s not an “if you like this guy, you’ll also like that guy thing.
10: The Dallas Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II is the second-best corner in the draft IMO, but he’s got a clean medical so he’s the first off the board. He is a day one starter at a position of need for the Cowboys, so I am probably wrong.
11: The New York Giants
Christian Darrisaw can probably play offensive tackle in the NFL, the proliferation of quick passing and RPOs has really taken the pressure off tackles. Nobody runs a seven-step drop without helping the tackle anymore.
12: The Philadelphia Eagles
Wide Receiver Jalen Waddle is not a number one receiver. He’s the shifty guy that you move around so teams can’t press him at the line. A team that expects him to be the 100 catch 1500 yard and 14 TD guy will be disappointed. With that said 60 catches for 1000 yards and 9 TDs a year is still worth a first-round pick and I’m guessing that’s Waddle’s career average.
13: The Los Angeles Chargers
Cornerback Caleb Farley is the best corner in the draft, but he had surgery on his back. He may not play forever, but the doctors who know more than me on the internet say that his issue isn’t a long-term concern. NFL teams tend to be risk-averse in the top ten so I think he falls, but someone is getting a heck of a deal.
14: The Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings desperately need to fix their offensive line so I have them reaching just a little bit here for offensive tackle Teven Jenkins. He fixes a problem they’ve had for a very long time.
15: The New England Patriots
I do not see a world where quarterback Mac Jones falls farther in the draft than this. As this draft fell, the Pats got their guy who can run the offenses Tom Brady did.
16: The Arizona Cardinals
Like his Alabama teammate, I do not think that wide receiver Devonta Smith is going to be the true number one receiver for a team. The Cardinals absolutely do not need him to be, so there is no way he falls past this spot.
17: The Las Vegas Raiders
Defensive end Jaelan Phillips is supposedly clear medically going forward. Many reports have surfaced this week that the league-wide scuttlebutt on him is that if you think he has first-round traits, the medical issues are not enough to stop you. Mike Mayock absolutely loves this guy, I guarantee it. Phillips is like if you were to dial up the perfect physical specimen to play the position.
18: The Miami Dolphins
Defensive end Joe Tyron is a name you are going to hear in the first round. I’ll bet my reputation on it. That’s easy to do when you don’t actually have one.
19: The Washington Football Team
Offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood has no business going this high. But he will. The WFT lost out on QB roulette in this mock, so they make the move that keeps Fitzmagic healthy and sets up their guy next year. This is my most likely landing spot for the Lions in a trade back. If they don’t move up, this is their future.
20: The Chicago Bears
Linebacker Zaven Collins is a player I desperately do not want in the NFC North, which means he is going to Chicago or Green Bay to terrorize the Lions forever. He can cover, blitz, rush off the edge, and I hate putting him on this team more than I can put into words.
21: The Indianapolis Colts
Jaycee Horn is a corner who best fits a defense that runs a lot of cover two shells, but if he gets into one of those defenses he will be a pro bowler in two years. This is a perfect match.
22: The Tennessee Titans
Wide receiver Rashod Bateman is a 1:1 replacement for Corey Davis in this offense. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Bateman is my number two receiver in this draft. and some team that’s already good will get him because he didn’t play in the SEC.
23: The New York Jets
Elijah Moore is a wide receiver with inside/outside potential, or who can play literally anywhere on the offense but tight end or fullback on a given down. Lions fans might recall Percy Harvin’s days in Minnesota. The Jets will not make the same mistake with Wilson that they did with Darnold. Jamison Crowder may keep Moore off the field as the slot receiver this year, but he is a free agent next year, and Moore can back up every receiver spot.
24: The Pittsburgh Steelers
Jamin Davis is a linebacker that excites me. He’s got a big and broad frame. He can cover, he comes downhill on running plays and screen passes like an avalanche, and he’s going to be a Pittsburgh Steeler because Zaven Collins is already gone.
25: The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags follow up getting the best quarterback in the draft with also taking the best safety in the draft. Trevon Moehrig can hold down the back end of the defense as Lawrence’s defensive counterpart. In a passing league, the days of the MLB having more responsibility than the FS are gone.
26: The Cleveland Browns
Kwitty Paye will be the defensive end who gets 10 sacks a year during the last two seasons of his rookie deal playing across from Myles Garrett, signs a huge deal in free agency and gets cut two years later by his second team. The Browns will only care about that first part.
27: The Baltimore Ravens
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is the versatile solution to modern defense that a forward-thinking team like the Ravens can put to good use.
28: The New Orleans Saints
One of the freakishly athletic corners in the draft will go to the Saints. Northwestern’s Greg Newsome is my pick.
29: The Green Bay Packers
Again, what is the worst thing that could happen on draftmas? Defensive tackle Christian Barmore going to the Packers is the worst thing that could happen on draftmas. Mark it in pen.
30: The Buffalo Bills
Pass rusher Azzez Ojulari might not have a 14 year NFL career due to a knee issue, but the Bills did not get to a Superbowl this season because they could not get to the passer against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. They go with the guy who fixes what might be their only actual problem on the roster.
31: The Baltimore Ravens
Trading their stud offensive tackle to the Chiefs left a hole. Apparently, he was becoming a locker room problem so they don’t mind that hole at all. They fill that hole with Sam Cosmi, who may not belong this high, but when you’re trying to pilot a ‘ship into the harbor, reaching just a little to plug a hole in the hull isn’t a terrible move.
32: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of Champions, the Bucs draft wide receiver Kadarius Toney. Chris Godwin is only on a one-year franchise tender, AB is probably not coming back if the Bucs land a replacement. They do, and the reload for a repeat is complete.
So there you have it, my Draftmas draft day mockstravaganza. Yeah, I’m just making up words now, it’s been a long and trying draft process.
Patreon, come for the Lions chat, stay for the BBQ and Home Improvement channels.
I will also be pumping out Vlogs galore on Monday in reaction to the draft class. They’ll likely trickle out over the course of the week, so subscribe and get the notifications.
